Who will Win the Premier League?

The 2023/24 Premier League title race is the tightest it has ever been, with just one point separating Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City.

There has been little like this in English football, let alone in the Premier League era.

Since the league’s formation in 1888, there have been 124 seasons. Out of them, there have only been 11 campaigns where there were three teams which could have considered themselves in a proper title run-in.

Only seven of those involved at least three sides finishing within a win of each other on the final day.

The closest the Premier League has had was two seasons when four points separated top from third, although neither would see all three going into the final day.

Arsenal are looking to win their first title in 20 years.

Manchester City are seeking a record fourth successive league while Liverpool hopes to give Jurgen Klopp the perfect ending before he departs.

We look at the three title challengers as well as some of the things that may cost them the Premier League title.

Arsenal

Arsenal currently sit at the top of the Premier League table.

However, according to Opta, they are regarded as the unlikeliest of the three contenders.

But the best defence usually wins titles and this has been one of Arsenal’s strengths this season, conceding only 24 goals so far.

In the early months of the season, Arsenal could not find a level of cutting edge to match their defensive prowess but that has changed.

Since the turn of the year, the Gunners have scored 38 goals in the Premier League, making them incredibly strong at both ends of the pitch.

Bukayo Saka has led Arsenal’s attack while there has been noticeable improvement in Martin Odegaard, Leandro Trossard and Kai Havertz.

Declan Rice’s impact has been immense in midfield and Mikel Arteta’s side appears mentally stronger than last season.

Arsenal defender Kieran Tierney, who is on loan at Real Sociedad, gave his thoughts on the Gunners’ title chances:

“I think they can.

“I don’t know exactly the run-in for the three teams fighting for it, but I think they’re in a better position than last year and they’ve got more experience than last year.

“I think their whole game has developed so much as well. Defensively they are solid, they don’t give much away.

“If you can keep that record up then 100 per cent you’ve got every chance to go on and do it.”

Why should they be cautious?

It would be unwise to think that last season’s capitulation is not at the back of their minds.

During the 2022/23 season, Arsenal had a healthy lead over Manchester City but a spate of bad results at the end of the season resulted in the latter capturing their third consecutive title.

It felt like they might never get a better chance and now, Arsenal have lots to prove in terms of staying power.

These players do not have the same level of trophy-winning experience as their rivals.

And for all of Arsenal’s attacking improvements, question marks over the striker position continue to loom.

Gabriel Jesus offers a lot but he is not a prolific goalscorer.

It is a position they will look to strengthen in the summer but right now, could the lack of a clinical striker cost them the title?

Liverpool

Liverpool’s title challenge has been propelled by their attacking firepower, boosted by Mohamed Salah‘s return from injury.

This is also encouragement at the other end of the pitch.

Virgil van Dijk seems to be back to his best while Caoimhin Kelleher has continued to prove an able deputy to the injured Alisson.

Youngsters Bobby Clark, Conor Bradley and Jarell Quansah are also contributing impressively.

It is also possible that Jurgen Klopp’s departure at the end of the season may further motivate them to go all the way and triumph.

Why should they be cautious?

Klopp has done a great job with Liverpool’s midfield, restructuring it almost from scratch after the departures of Jordan Henderson, Fabinho, James Milner and Naby Keita last summer.

But they still lack a defensive midfielder at the level of Rodri and Declan Rice.

Several key injured players are set to return including Trent Alexander-Arnold, Alisson and Diogo Jota.

But while van Dijk is in fine form, defensive doubts still remain, with Joel Matip ruled out for the remainder of the season.

Liverpool have only conceded 30 goals, the second-fewest after Arsenal but can they keep it up for the rest of the season?

Figures show that they give their opponents far better chances than Manchester City and Arsenal.

The underlying numbers show they give their opponents far better chances than City and Arsenal, with 36.52 expected goals against (xGa) given up so far, compared to Arsenal’s 21.62 and City’s 30.31.

Manchester City

Despite drawing against Liverpool and Arsenal, Manchester City are a side that has clicked into gear at a pivotal moment in the Premier League season.

Pep Guardiola’s players know what it takes to get over the line as they chase an unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League title.

They have recovered from far worse positions than the one they found themselves in earlier this season.

Manchester City’s squad also has more depth than their rivals, allowing them to comfortably beat teams even without the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland earlier in the season.

Guardiola has described both Phil Foden and Rodri as their “players of the season”.

De Bruyne and Haaland are back and Manchester City’s injury list is relatively clear, meaning they will be confident of doing what they need to do to clinch the record title.

Why should they be cautious?

The main reason for caution is the fact that no side has won four league titles in a row.

Amid tough competition from Liverpool and Arsenal, and still in contention for three trophies, can Manchester City maintain the level required for a fourth consecutive title?

Guardiola’s side appears less ruthless in comparison to previous seasons as Sky Sports’ Paul Merson said:

“It didn’t feel like the Man City we’ve seen in recent seasons.”

“In the past, whatever their results, you felt like they believed they could and would go on a run of 10 straight wins if they needed to. They also aren’t blowing teams away anymore.”

The other flicker of hope for their title rivals is they are not as defensively sound.

Having conceded 31 goals in 31 games, they are letting in close to their highest rate under Guardiola, almost on a par with the 2016/17 season, when they finished third.

For supporters of these three clubs, the final part of the Premier League is a tense one but for the neutral, it is extremely exciting.

Each side has battled to maintain its stride with their title rivals, with none of them appearing to wilt.

It is the closest Premier League race ever and this is the same in the Championship, with Leicester, Ipswich and Leeds United also separated by just a point, it is a great time for English football.

Either Arsenal, Liverpool or Manchester City will lift the Premier League trophy when the season draws to a close on May 19, 2024, but the question remains – who will triumph?