Are Electric Cars really the Future?

If the streets are full of electric cars in five years then the current efforts of electric vehicles will have been merely a speed bump.

Sales in the United States have significantly slowed down, falling below the government’s set target.

The market share of electric vehicles (EVs) in the United Kingdom has plateaued, and just 1.2% of European passenger cars in 2022 were powered by batteries.

A successor to traditional combustion-engine cars is imminent.

Various regions, including the European Union, the United Kingdom, California and several other US states have committed to banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2035, with the phase-out process commencing well in advance.

But will drivers switch to electric cars or switch modes of transport altogether?

There is the notion that in busy cities, electric cars will not be the future and may fall behind e-bikes, e-mopeds and e-scooters.

The biggest downside to electric cars is the upfront price.

They are currently 30 to 40% higher than petrol and diesel vehicles.

EVs might be too costly to subject to the daily uncertainties of city streets.

Additionally, over their entire life cycle, EVs emit more carbon than most urban transport options, trailing only behind petrol cars in this regard.

While EVs remain a sensible choice for residents who cover long distances daily, justifying both the emissions and financial investment through the elimination of regular fuel expenses, the case for individual urban dwellers is less compelling.

The decline in European car mileage since 2000 is evident, with 57% of cars in Britain being driven less than 100 miles per week, according to calculations by the consultancy Field Dynamics.

Even in the United States, approximately half of car journeys in the busiest cities are less than three miles.

Many urban residents may currently own and drive a car simply because they have one.

However, avoiding the expense of acquiring an EV, which can cost around $50,000, could significantly reduce their cost of living, providing an alternative for those seeking financial savings, especially in places where owning just one car instead of two is a feasible option.

Electric cars face other obstacles.

Cities are reclaiming space from cars. For instance, Paris is holding a referendum on February 4, 2024, on a special parking tax for heavier SUVs.

There is also the problem of charging electric cars.

Suburban households with garages can install chargers.

However, the absence of public chargers on city streets hasn’t posed a significant problem so far, mainly because the ownership of EVs remains limited.

This situation is akin to the scarcity of lithium for batteries.

Even if you manage to locate an urban charging station, the charging process can be time-consuming, taking hours.

Adding to the complexity, the majority of the world’s EVs are manufactured in China, without a strong Western lobby facilitating their integration.

Conversely, governments might impose tariffs to impede their entry, safeguarding Western industries from potential Chinese dominance.

For those contemplating the switch from a petrol car, the decision boils down to an evaluation: is it more practical to opt for a much more affordable and health-conscious e-bike, chargeable within the confines of one’s apartment, and occasionally complemented by taxi rides?

This shift reflects a growing trend.

European and US car sales hit their peak in 2019, while in 2022, about 5.5 million e-bikes were sold in the EU compared to just two million electric cars.

Many car owners now utilise bikes for short-distance journeys.

E-bikes are even evolving into status symbols, with luxury brands like Lamborghini and Maserati producing upscale models, and Porsche developing bike motors, batteries and software.

Biking is becoming ingrained in urban culture, exemplified by the transformation in Paris, where only one in three households owns a car, and cycle paths remain busy even in January 2024.

Additionally, a plethora of other electric transportation options exist.

Globally, Bloomberg reports that there are 280 million electric mopeds, scooters, motorcycles and three-wheelers, dwarfing the 20 million passenger EVs.

In hindsight, we might conclude that electric cars were tailored for American suburbia and for nowhere else.