"Whoever beats India wins, simple."
Three matches, three commanding wins. India has reaffirmed its status as the world’s best white-ball team at the Champions Trophy.
Their latest victory over New Zealand only strengthened that view.
India’s advantage in this tournament is undeniable.
Their decision not to travel to Pakistan means they have played all their games in Dubai. That has allowed them to exploit the conditions, using their world-class spinners to maximum effect.
Opponents have had no such luxury.
While other semi-finalists balanced their squads for varying conditions in Lahore and Karachi, India remained settled in Dubai, where slow bowling thrives.
Rohit Sharma’s side adapted their attack accordingly. Three spinners played in their first two matches. When the pitches tired further, they added a fourth.
Varun Chakravarthy’s inclusion paid off immediately. The mystery spinner took 5-42 against New Zealand, underlining the strength of India’s spin arsenal.
Ravindra Jadeja, Axar Patel and Kuldeep Yadav are world-class, and even their fifth option, Washington Sundar, would walk into many teams.
No side has matched India’s ability to control games through spin.
Australia, world champions but missing their three best fast bowlers, face India in the Champions Trophy semi-final on March 4.
Former England captain Michael Vaughan said:
“Whoever beats India wins, simple. I think it’s only the Aussies who could get them but I very much doubt it on the Dubai pitch.”
However, Australia has history on its side. They beat India in the 2024 World Cup final and have recent Test and World Test Championship victories over them.
Australia’s confidence will come from their ability to chase. They know India’s biggest weakness has been failing to push enough when batting first in crunch games.
Rohit Sharma has worked hard to fix that. But it reappeared in last year’s T20 World Cup final, even though India eventually triumphed.
Former England spinner Alex Hartley said: “Australia will back themselves to chase anything but if they bat first it could all end up in a heap.
“They might panic against the spinners and be bowled out really cheaply but if they are chasing they’ve got the mindset to dig in.”
Australia must also contend with injuries. Matt Short has been ruled out, replaced by 21-year-old Cooper Connolly. He has played only three ODIs.
Steve Smith’s side have selection decisions to make.
They could promote Josh Inglis to open or bring in seamer Aaron Hardie. Alternatively, attacking opener Jake Fraser-McGurk could get the nod. Connolly provides another left-arm spin option.
Australia’s key weapon will be Adam Zampa. The leg-spinner has dismissed Rohit four times in ODIs, Virat Kohli five, and both Hardik Pandya and KL Rahul four times.
One area where India remains untested is death bowling. Without Jasprit Bumrah, the responsibility falls to Mohammed Shami and Hardik Pandya.
If Australia takes the game deep, India could be vulnerable.
Since 2022, Shami has conceded 8.12 runs per over in the final 10 overs of ODIs. Hardik has leaked over 10.9 runs per over in recent IPL seasons.
Australia will prepare at Dubai International Stadium – the venue of their 2021 World Cup triumph.
Meanwhile, the second semi-final features New Zealand and South Africa.
The Black Caps won their last meeting just three weeks ago. But South Africa now has their strongest squad, with Heinrich Klaasen and David Miller offering a formidable middle order.
India is not unbeatable. But to stop them, Australia must produce something special.
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