"the enduring effects from the conflict will be with us for a while."
Bill payers are urged to submit a meter reading as household energy prices rise by 13% for millions of people across England, Scotland and Wales.
Customers on variable tariffs who do not have smart meters have been advised to provide up-to-date readings to avoid being charged the new, higher rates for energy already used.
The increase affects around 33 million households covered by Ofgem’s energy price cap, although customers on fixed-rate deals will not see any changes until their contracts expire.
The latest increase equates to an average rise of £18 per month for a household with typical energy usage. Gas bills will increase by 24%, while electricity costs will rise by 5%. Standing charges remain largely unchanged.
The rise comes despite lower summer energy consumption and follows sustained increases in wholesale gas prices.
Analysts have warned that the wider geopolitical impact of the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran could continue to affect household energy costs throughout the year.
Energy consultancy Cornwall Insight has forecast only a marginal reduction of 0.5% in Ofgem’s price cap from October, raising concerns that elevated bills could persist into the winter months.
Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, said:
“The Iran ceasefire gave the markets some breathing room, but this is a pause, not a resolution to the conflict.
“What comes out of the final agreement, if there is one, will matter enormously for energy prices.
“Even in the best-case scenario, the enduring effects from the conflict will be with us for a while.”
The warning is likely to increase pressure on the government to provide additional support for struggling households.
Ministers have previously pointed to reforms introduced earlier in 2026 aimed at reducing bills, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves had indicated that further targeted support could be announced in the autumn.
However, political uncertainty surrounding Labour’s leadership and lower-than-expected energy market volatility following the US-Iran ceasefire have complicated expectations around further intervention.
Ofgem has also revised its definition of typical household energy consumption to reflect changing consumer behaviour and improved energy efficiency.
The regulator now estimates average annual household usage at 9,500 kWh of gas and 2,500 kWh of electricity.
Around 40% of households have fixed-rate energy deals and will not be affected by the latest increase until their current tariffs end.
However, those on standard variable tariffs with traditional meters are being advised to submit readings as soon as possible.
Price comparison website Uswitch has urged customers to act quickly to ensure any energy used before the price rise on July 1 is billed at the previous rate.
The latest increase has renewed calls for a social tariff to help households struggling with rising energy costs.
The Trades Union Congress (TUC) has called for discounted energy tariffs for vulnerable consumers, similar to schemes already available for some broadband and water customers.
Social tariffs are typically offered to people receiving certain benefits, with costs funded either through general taxation or higher charges for other consumers.
The TUC has proposed funding an energy social tariff through increased taxes on banking sector profits.
The pressure on households is reflected in growing levels of consumer debt.
Money owed to energy suppliers across England, Scotland and Wales reached a record £4.79 billion during the first three months of the year, a 15% increase compared with the same period last year.
Charity National Energy Action warned that recent extreme weather conditions have highlighted the urgent need for greater investment in energy efficiency and support for vulnerable households.
Chief executive Adam Scorer said: “Energy-inefficient homes take lives in winter and will increasingly threaten the most vulnerable in summer.”
Industry body Energy UK has encouraged consumers to contact their suppliers as early as possible if they are struggling to pay their bills, as support is often only available when suppliers are informed directly.
The latest increase in energy costs comes amid wider concerns about the financial resilience of UK households.
A new report from pensions and investment company Royal London found that many people remain vulnerable to further increases in essential household costs.
According to the report, around 30% of UK adults are considered financially fragile, with limited savings and little capacity to absorb unexpected financial shocks.








