"When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry"
New research suggests that food prices are on course to be 50% higher this November than at the start of the cost-of-living crisis in 2021.
Analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) shows the pace of food price growth has nearly quadrupled. Costs have risen over five years at a rate similar to the previous two decades combined.
The findings underline how sustained economic pressures continue to reshape household spending. They also point to climate and energy shocks as key drivers behind the surge.
Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation, said:
“Food prices rising this high and this fast leaves families on the lowest incomes with nowhere left to cut except the food on their plate.
“When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry, and diet-related illness rises, taking parents out of work and piling pressure on an NHS that can least afford it.”
The research suggests the cost-of-living crisis will remain a defining political issue, with many voters continuing to blame political elites and big business for sustained financial pressures.
Experts have warned that geopolitical tensions could push inflation higher. The ongoing war in the Middle East is expected to increase energy costs, which directly affect food production and transport.
The Bank of England has said food inflation could reach 7% by the end of the year. Rising fertiliser, energy and transport costs are expected to drive the increase.
Staples and everyday items have already seen sharp price rises. Pasta, frozen vegetables, chocolate and eggs are all at least 50% more expensive than five years ago.
Beef prices have risen by 64%, while olive oil has more than doubled, according to the ECIU.
The thinktank said these increases reflect the products’ “sensitivity to volatile oil and gas prices, synthetic fertiliser costs, and climate impacts such as droughts, floods and heatwaves, both in the UK and in key import regions”.
These combined pressures pushed average household food bills up by £605 across 2022 and 2023.
More recently, five climate-affected products have driven continued inflation. Butter, milk, beef, chocolate and coffee have all contributed significantly to rising costs.
The ECIU warned inflation could become even more extreme in the near future.
Chris Jaccarini, a food and farming analyst at the ECIU, said:
“Trump’s war in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike.”
“Scientists are predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record with climate change combining with the El Niño effect kicking off this year.
“Three of England’s worst harvests on record have been in the past five years.”
When adjusted for average wages, food prices have risen by 11% since the start of the cost-of-living crisis.
This comes alongside increases in other essential household costs, including energy and water bills. Experts say these combined pressures are becoming harder for households to absorb.
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