Could the Iran Conflict cause UK Food Shortages?

As the Iran conflict rages on, concern turns to the possibility of UK food shortages this summer if it continues.

Officials warn that prolonged instability around the Strait of Hormuz could ripple through energy markets and into Britain’s food system.

Government contingency planning has focused on a “reasonable worst-case scenario” in which carbon dioxide supplies are disrupted alongside wider trade and industrial shocks.

Carbon dioxide is essential across food production, from slaughter and preservation to packaging and refrigeration, meaning even short-term shortages could affect chicken, pork and chilled goods.

Ministers have stressed that current supply remains stable, but the scale of dependency on global energy routes has sharpened concern.

For now, industry leaders are watching inflation more closely than empty shelves, but the risks are increasingly being stress-tested behind the scenes.

Carbon Dioxide at the Centre of the Food System

Carbon dioxide is one of those inputs most consumers rarely think about, yet it sits quietly behind much of the UK’s food and drink infrastructure.

It is used to stun pigs and chickens during slaughter, helping maintain standardised welfare processes, and it plays a role in packaging fresh meat and produce to extend shelf life and slow bacterial growth.

It is also essential for fizzy drinks and beer production, where carbonation depends directly on a stable gas supply.

In refrigeration systems, carbon dioxide supports cooling processes that keep products moving safely through supply chains.

Beyond food, the gas has wider industrial and public service applications that underline its importance in a crisis.

It is used in medical settings, including certain surgical procedures and MRI scanning environments, and it is also involved in cooling systems for nuclear power operations.

That breadth of usage is why policymakers view carbon dioxide as a critical infrastructure input that can expose multiple sectors simultaneously when supply tightens.

Government officials have acknowledged the scale of the planning challenge, with contingency work now examining how multiple disruptions could overlap.

One scenario being tested includes continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz into the summer, alongside instability in diplomatic negotiations and potential mechanical failure at key UK carbon dioxide production sites.

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs has emphasised that such planning is precautionary rather than predictive, with a spokesperson saying:

“Reasonable worst-case scenarios are a planning tool used by experts and are not a prediction of future events.”

Supermarket Pressure

The immediate trigger for concern has been instability in the Middle East, including strikes on Iran and the resulting disruption to global shipping routes.

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global oil and gas flows, and any restriction has knock-on effects for energy prices, fertiliser production and industrial gas supply chains.

Those pressures feed directly into agriculture and food manufacturing costs, even if supermarket availability remains unchanged in the short term.

The government has already moved to shore up domestic resilience, including temporarily restarting the Ensus bioethanol plant on Teesside, which produces carbon dioxide as a byproduct.

Ministers have framed this as a stabilising measure designed to reduce exposure to imported or disrupted gas supply.

A spokesperson for Ensus said:

“We are confident we can continue to produce carbon dioxide for the country’s needs for the foreseeable future.”

Business Secretary Peter Kyle has sought to reassure the public that there is no immediate food shortage risk.

He said carbon dioxide availability is not a concern for the British economy “at this moment” and encouraged people to continue as normal.

At the same time, he stressed the importance of preparedness, even if the scenario itself remains unlikely.

Speaking about the planning process, he said: “The public need to be reassured that we are doing this kind of planning and we are doing this kind of scenario planning.”

He also criticised the reporting of the contingency exercise, calling the leak “unhelpful”, while maintaining that government readiness should not be mistaken for evidence of imminent disruption.

Retailers echo that sense of stability in the short term.

Tesco chief executive Ken Murphy said the company is not seeing any supply chain issues linked to carbon dioxide and that none of its suppliers has flagged risks.

He added that after years of shocks ranging from Brexit to the pandemic, retailers are now highly experienced in managing disruption before it reaches consumers.

The British Retail Consortium has similarly said retailers expect the government to plan for all scenarios, but stressed that supply chains are currently functioning normally.

Food sector bodies remain cautious but not alarmed.

The British Poultry Council said it was “reassured” by contingency planning, while confirming that members are not reporting difficulties. At the same time, broader industry commentary suggests the more realistic near-term pressure point is inflation rather than shortages.

With fertiliser, fuel and logistics costs already sensitive to global energy movements, any sustained disruption is expected to filter through into higher food prices before it creates physical scarcity.

Currently, the UK food system is not showing signs of shortage, but it is operating in a more fragile global environment shaped by the Iran conflict.

Carbon dioxide has emerged as an unexpected focal point because of its deep integration across food production, healthcare and industry, meaning disruption would not remain isolated.

Government and industry responses remain focused on resilience planning rather than emergency response, with officials repeatedly stressing that worst-case scenarios are not forecasts.

For consumers, the immediate outlook is likely to be felt more at the checkout than on empty shelves.

But as officials continue to test scenarios involving prolonged disruption to key global routes like the Strait of Hormuz, the underlying message from both government and industry is clear: the system is stable for now, but increasingly stress-tested for what comes next.