“There will be a real, physical shortage of supply"
The UK could impose emergency measures, including fuel rationing and lower speed limits if fuel supplies are disrupted, according to contingency plans now under renewed scrutiny.
The National Emergency Plan for Fuel have been in place since 2022 but have been put in sharp focus by the conflict in the Middle East.
Disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global supply route.
The plan outlines steps to manage severe shortages. These include limiting speeds to 50mph and prioritising fuel for emergency services.
Energy expert Nick Butler warned the government may soon need to act if the situation worsens.
He said: “There will be a real, physical shortage of supply in a few weeks’ time.
“How long that goes on we don’t know, but I think the government here must now be preparing for a significant shortfall of supply over the next two months.
“I think it does mean a form of rationing. I think we learnt from the tanker drivers dispute in 2000 that oil and gas supplies are absolutely crucial to the running of the economy and you can’t bring on new supplies quickly.”
The warning follows reports of a virtual blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which has significantly reduced oil exports from the Gulf region.
Despite the concerns, the government has stressed that the emergency plan is precautionary. Officials said fuel supplies across the UK remain stable and petrol stations are well-stocked.
A spokesperson highlighted that the UK is not heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil.
Around 90% of crude oil refined in the UK is imported, but only about 1% comes from the region.
Most supplies are sourced from countries including the United States and Norway, with additional volumes from other producers.
Motoring organisations have urged calm.
Both the AA and the RAC have advised drivers to continue purchasing fuel as normal, warning against panic buying.
However, prices at the pump are already rising.
According to the RAC, unleaded petrol has increased to an average of 142.62p per litre, while diesel has climbed to 162.66p.
The situation remains fluid, with the duration of any disruption likely to determine whether emergency measures are introduced.
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