Iran Conflict Could Push UK Food Prices Up Within Weeks

The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) has warned that food prices in the UK could rise within weeks as the Middle East conflict disrupts global supply chains.

NFU president Tom Bradshaw said the price of fresh produce like cucumbers and tomatoes could increase within six weeks, with the cost of other crops and milk increasing in the next three to six months.

Iran’s continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up the cost of fuel and fertiliser. Both are essential for food production and distribution.

Mr Bradshaw said the pressures “span the whole food supply chain” and were something the “government needs to take very seriously”.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the effect of the conflict on food production “will turn the world supply upside down, and it will have a dramatic impact”.

It remains unclear how much prices will increase for consumers.

Farmers sell produce to retailers, including supermarkets, which ultimately decide shelf prices.

The NFU said that while some additional costs may be absorbed within the supply chain, “some costs will inevitably be passed on to the consumer”.

A large share of global natural gas, crude oil and fertiliser typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The route has now been effectively closed for more than three weeks, intensifying cost pressures.

The NFU warned that glasshouse-grown produce, including tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers, would be among the first affected. These crops rely heavily on natural gas for heating.

Livestock and dairy farmers could also face rising costs soon, as fertiliser is often purchased on demand.

By contrast, arable farmers growing crops such as wheat and barley may be partially shielded in the short term, having already secured supplies.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) said disruption to shipping routes could affect both availability and prices of some goods.

However, it added that retailers and suppliers were “adept at managing this type of disruption” and “will work hard to minimise the impact on customers”.

BRC director of food and sustainability Andrew Opie said sustained increases in energy costs could “directly impact” prices.

He added: “Amidst this volatile backdrop, it is more important than ever that government keeps other inflationary pressures within its control to a minimum to protect households.”

Mr Bradshaw said: “For our glasshouse horticultural production, things like cucumbers, peppers, tomatoes – it’ll [be] over the next month, six weeks that we see those cost increases coming through to the retailer.

“And then for some of our field-scale produce and some of our crops and milk and things like that, it’ll be the next three to six months that we start to see those prices coming through.”

There are also concerns about rising red diesel prices, a key fuel used in agricultural machinery and transport.

Farming minister Angela Eagle said she was “monitoring the developments in the Middle East and the impacts for our food and farming sectors”.

She added that she had raised concerns about the “price transparency” of red diesel with the Competition and Markets Authority, which has committed to monitoring fuel sales.

Senior ministers are set to meet next week as part of the government’s Cobra emergency committee. Discussions will focus on the wider impact of the conflict on the cost of living.

Rising food prices are expected to feature prominently, alongside concerns over petrol costs, household energy bills and interest rates.