Will the US $100k H-1B Visa really Work or Fail?

The US ignited a firestorm in the global technology and healthcare sectors when it was announced that there would be a $100,000 fee for the H-1B visa, a primary route for skilled foreign workers.

This executive order, signed by President Donald Trump and effective from September 21, 2025, represents a seismic shift in US immigration policy.

It has disproportionately affected Indian professionals, who represent over 70% of H-1B recipients and for whom the visa has long been a symbol of the American dream.

The move triggered widespread confusion and panic.

While the White House later attempted a hasty clarification that the fee applies only to new applicants, the initial whiplash has left companies and individuals questioning the future of a programme that has supplied the US with critical talent for over three decades.

Widespread Chaos

The policy’s rollout was chaotic, creating what the Financial Times described as a “weekend of whiplash for hundreds of thousands of Indians on H-1B visas”.

The immediate, real-world consequences were stark.

In one vivid example of the ensuing panic, a plane bound for Mumbai was reportedly held back for over two hours as dozens of passengers disembarked, fearing they would be unable to re-enter the United States.

This was a crisis unfolding in real-time for people whose lives are built across continents.

Behind these headlines lie countless personal stories of devastation.

One Indian worker told The Guardian:

“Even if a person has a valid H-1B visa stamped on their passport, if they are travelling, or are on holiday, you cannot enter the US unless they have proof of the $100,000 payment.

“No one knows what the process is, what the fine print is.”

Another said the new policies were making many already on H-1B visas reconsider staying in the US, adding:

“People are really starting to question if they can continue to build their lives in the US because there’s such a high level of uncertainty around everything now.”

For these individuals, the executive order was a wrecking ball swung at the foundations of their lives, causing immense and immediate anxiety.

The stated theory behind the policy is that the prohibitive cost will force firms to hire American workers.

However, analysts believe the more likely reality is that firms will simply move jobs overseas where talent is available, leading to job exportation rather than creation.

The Economic Effect

The potential economic damage of this policy is significant and multifaceted, threatening to cripple sectors that are heavily reliant on international talent.

As David Bier, director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, told the BBC, the visa fee hike “will deal a devastating blow to US innovation and competitiveness”.

This blow is not expected to land evenly.

While large companies like Google, Amazon, and Meta might possess the lobbying muscle to seek exemptions or the capital to absorb the costs, the nation’s start-ups and medium-sized businesses, the very engines of innovation, will be hardest hit.

The policy will also force a fundamental restructuring of business operations.

Indian outsourcing giants such as TCS and Infosys have been preparing for such a shift for years, building up local workforces and shifting delivery offshore.

In contrast, many US-based companies will be playing catch-up.

Aditya Narayan Mishra of the staffing firm CIEL HR stated that with “employers reluctant to commit to the heavy cost of sponsorship, we could see greater reliance on remote contracting, offshore delivery and gig workers”.

This means US clients will likely see project costs rise as companies pass on the new fees, or face delays as staffing models are reconfigured.

Nowhere is the crisis more acute than in the American healthcare sector.

With Indian doctors making up approximately 6% of the US physician workforce, any disruption to the pipeline of international medical graduates is critical, especially for underserved rural communities.

The economics of the new fee are simply impossible.

Given that the median salary for new H-1B employees was $94,000 in 2023, the math doesn’t work.

As analysts have bluntly pointed out, “No hospital will pay a $100K fee for a $55k resident salary”, a financial barrier that threatens to create a dire and lasting shortage of medical professionals.

A Dream Derailed for Indian Aspirants

For decades, the H-1B visa has been more than just a work permit; it has been a cultural phenomenon.

It was a pathway that, according to the Financial Times, transformed “small-town coders into dollar earners”, vaulting families into the middle class and reshaping the economies of two nations.

For the US, it meant an infusion of talent that filled labs, classrooms, and the C-suites of companies like Google, Microsoft, and IBM. This new policy has dealt a crushing blow to those dreams.

Indian students, who constitute one in four international students in the US, are on the front lines of this fallout.

Sudhanshu Kaushik, founder of the North American Association of Indian Students, told the BBC the move “felt like a direct attack, because the fees are already paid… and the most lucrative route to entering the American workforce has now been obliterated”.

Students arrive having paid a “big sunk cost of anywhere between $50,000 and $100,000”, an investment made with the implicit understanding that a path to employment existed.

With that path now blocked by a six-figure paywall, the US has broken a decades-long promise to the world’s brightest minds.

The long-term consequence will be a redirection of this incredible talent pool.

As Gil Guerra, an immigration policy analyst at the Niskanen Centre, told the BBC, the policy “will likely also incentivise more skilled Indian workers to look at other countries for international study and have a cascading effect on the American university system as well”.

Countries like Canada, the UK, and Australia, which offer clearer pathways to residency, are poised to benefit from this self-inflicted wound to American higher education.

The introduction of the $100,000 H-1B visa fee is a high-risk policy with profound, and potentially irreversible, consequences.

It is a move that seems to ignore the immense economic contributions of H-1B holders, who add an estimated $86 billion annually to the US economy and pay over $35 billion in federal and state taxes.

While intended to prioritise the domestic workforce, the measure is widely seen as a barrier that will drive innovation offshore, create critical labour shortages, and diminish America’s standing as the world’s leading destination for talent.

It is less a tax on foreign workers and more a stress test for the entire US economy.

The H-1B programme’s future now hangs in the balance, and how US companies respond will ultimately determine whether the nation continues to lead in technology and discovery or cedes its competitive edge to more welcoming economies.