“Food inflation is being driven by a handful of products."
The UK’s food bills are climbing faster than many realise, and climate change is the main driver, not government policy.
Butter, milk, beef, chocolate and coffee accounted for nearly 40 per cent of the rise in food prices over the past year.
That’s despite these products making up barely a tenth of the typical household food basket, according to research from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).
Prices for these items rose by an average of 15.6 per cent in the year to August, compared with just 2.8 per cent for other foods.
The research challenges the widespread notion that rising grocery bills are mainly caused by domestic policy changes.
Christian Jaccarini, the report’s author, said: “Food inflation is being driven by a handful of products.
“It’s not broad-based, and if it’s not broad-based, it seems unlikely that it’s primarily the result of higher labour or production costs.”
While government policies may play a role, climate extremes are having a far larger impact on costs, affecting both production and imports.
Climate-Driven Staples Fuel Rising Bills
The UK imports roughly two-fifths of its food, leaving many essential items vulnerable to global weather events.
Cocoa prices have more than tripled in three years after droughts and floods damaged crops in West Africa. Coffee has also suffered from dry spells in Brazil and Vietnam, sharply reducing harvests.
Meanwhile, domestic agriculture has struggled with its own climate challenges.
Last year’s alternating wet and dry weather, followed by the driest spring and hottest summer on record this year, damaged pastures, forcing farmers to rely on expensive feed silage earlier than usual.
Dairy and beef prices have surged as a result.
The price of beef has climbed almost 25 per cent, butter is up 19 per cent, and whole milk has risen 13 per cent in the past year.
Disease outbreaks, such as bluetongue in northern Europe, have compounded these pressures.
Professor Timothy Lang, of City St George’s, University of London, said:
“There is no way the production of food can avoid climate change.”
Domestic Policy and Labour Pressures
Industry groups have argued that government policy, labour shortages, and regulation are weighing on producers.
Arla, the UK’s largest dairy producer, highlighted that 84 per cent of its 1,900 dairy farmers had “very few” or no qualified applicants for vacancies.
While these factors add costs, experts say they are not the main driver of inflation.
Professor Lang noted:
“Recent policy changes were adding extra costs into the food system but they’re not the big picture.”
The ECIU’s research suggests that climate-impacted products alone added almost two percentage points to the 5.1 per cent rise in the UK’s food and drink basket, roughly four times the inflationary impact of all other foods combined.
Tom Bradshaw, president of the National Farmers’ Union, argued that the UK should grow more of its own food to reduce import reliance, but ECIU warned this would not fully shield the country from climate-related shocks.
UK food inflation is concentrated, volatile, and increasingly dictated by climate extremes rather than policy decisions.
Butter, milk, beef, chocolate, and coffee exemplify how global weather patterns and domestic climate variability ripple through the grocery basket.
As climate pressures intensify, both consumers and producers face higher costs, with policy adjustments alone unlikely to stabilise prices.
The challenge for Britain will be balancing domestic production with global supply risks while navigating an era where climate change dictates the cost of the everyday staples we rely on.
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